Sweet 16 Advanced Team Statistical Primer March 26, 2014 No Comments

NCAA Tournament | Sweet 16

Compelling time for College Basketball Fans

College Basketball advanced sports statistician salivates at the everything the NCAA Tournament represents – especially at Sweet-16 point.

The Regional Semifinal Rounds represent the ultimate exhilarating & nearly unmatchable aggregate data set; a wholeheartedly magnificent 3½ Day frozen-frame season snapshot.

Similar to the lead up to NBA Playoffs, ‘sixteen’ teams provide an substantial yet ‘manageable’ number of quality teams to evaluate, with an abundance of distinctive players, coaches to isolate all the independent & distinguishing schemes.

Only paradox?
We are only allowed 84¼ Hours to slice up 8 games & 16 teams

2014 NCAA SWEET 16 ADVANCED STATISTICS

(3) 1-SEEDS

1 FLORIDA 34-2 (AP #1)
1 VIRGINIA 30-6 (AP #3)

1 ARIZONA 32-4 (AP #4)

(2) 2-SEEDS

2 MICHIGAN 27-8 (AP #7)
2 WISCONSIN 28-7 (AP #12)

(1) 3-SEED

3 IOWA STATE 28-7 (AP #9)

(ALL 4) 4-SEEDS

4 LOUISVILLE 31-5 (AP #5)
4 MICHIGAN STATE 28-8 (AP #11)
4 SAN DIEGO STATE 31-4 (AP #13)
4 UCLA 28-8 (AP #20)

(1) 6-SEED

6 BAYLOR 26-11 (AP #23)

(1) 7-SEED

7 CONNECTICUT 28-8 (AP #18)

(1) 8-SEED

8 KENTUCKY 26-10

(1) 10-SEED

10 STANFORD 23-12

(2) 11-SEEDS

11 TENNESSEE 24-12
11 DAYTON 25-10

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

3 PAC-12
3 BIG-TEN
3 SEC
2 BIG-12
2 AMERICAN
1 ATLANTIC-10
1 MOUNTAIN WEST
1 ACC

‘EFFECTIVE’ SIZE (Avg Size w/% of Contribution)

6. UKy +6.0” Above Average NCAA
10. Baylr +4.4” Above Average NCAA
13. Stan +4.0” Above Average NCAA
16. Ariz +3.7” Above Average NCAA
20. UCLA +3.4” Above Average NCAA
20. UCon +3.4” Above Average NCAA
50. Wisc +2.1” Above Average NCAA
67. UVa +1.7” Above Average NCAA
76. SDSU +1.6” Above Average NCAA
103. Louvl +1.1” Above Average NCAA
103. MchSt +1.1” Above Average NCAA
122 Fla +0.8” Above Average NCAA
145. Daytn +0.4” Above Average NCAA
157. Tenn +0.2” Above Average NCAA
215. Mich -0.7” Below Average NCAA
325. IowSt -3.0” Below Average NCAA

EXPERIENCE (Avg Age | % w/Contribution Level)

21. Stan 2.36 Avg NCAA Years
67. UCon 2.10 Avg NCAA Years
80. Tenn 2.05 Avg NCAA Years
92. Baylr 2.02 Avg NCAA Years
92. Fla 2.02 Avg NCAA Years
123. Louvl 1.91 Avg NCAA Years
150. SDSU 1.80 Avg NCAA Years
192. Wisc 1.70 Avg NCAA Years
202 MchSt 1.65 Avg NCAA Years
212. Daytn 1.64 Avg NCAA Years
234. IowSt 1.57 Avg NCAA Years
260. UVa 1.46 Avg NCAA Years
292. UCLA 1.34 Avg NCAA Years
327. Ariz 1.07 Avg NCAA Years
331. Mich 1.06 Avg NCAA Years
351. UKy 0.33 Avg NCAA Years

BENCH USAGE (% of Bench Game Minutes)

62. Daytn 36.0% Bench Minutes
81. MchSt 34.5% Bench Minutes
88. Louvl 34.0% Bench Minutes
152. UCLA 31.5% Bench Minutes
178. Baylr 30.0% Bench Minutes
178. Fla 30.0% Bench Minutes
200. UVa 29.2% Bench Minutes
220. UCon 28.3% Bench Minutes
233. SDSU 27.8% Bench Minutes
274. Mich 25.5% Bench Minutes
287. Ariz 25.0% Bench Minutes
303. Tenn 24.0% Bench Minutes
326. UKy 23.1% Bench Minutes
329. IowSt 21.5% Bench Minutes
332. Wisc 20.7% Bench Minutes
346. Stan 19.0% Bench Minutes

TEMPO | PACE (Total Average Possessions per Game)

14. IowSt 71.5 Total Average Possessions per Game
42. UCLA 70.0 Total Average Possessions per Game
64. Louvl 69.0 Total Average Possessions per Game
180. Stan 69.0 Total Average Possessions per Game
192. MchSt 66.4 Total Average Possessions per Game
209. UKy 66.0 Total Average Possessions per Game
236. UCon 65.6 Total Average Possessions per Game
236. Daytn 65.5 Total Average Possessions per Game
262. Ariz 64.6 Total Average Possessions per Game
262. Wisc 64.6 Total Average Possessions per Game
297. SDSU 63.7 Total Average Possessions per Game
320. Fla 63.1 Total Average Possessions per Game
326. Tenn 62.8 Total Average Possessions per Game
326. Baylr 62.8 Total Average Possessions per Game
333. Mich 62.3 Total Average Possessions per Game
346. UVa 61.0 Total Average Possessions per Game

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY (Points Per Possession)

3. Mich 1.227 O-PPP
4. Wisc 1.204 O-PPP
6. Baylr 1.192 O-PPP
9. MchSt 1.178 O-PPP
10. IowSt 1.178 O-PPP
12. UCLA 1.173 O-PPP
15. Louvl 1.164 O-PPP
16. Tenn 1.162 O-PPP
17. UKy 1.161 O-PPP
18. Fla 1.16 O-PPP
20. UVa 1.147 O-PPP
27. Ariz 1.136 O-PPP
38. Daytn 1.122 O-PPP
56. UCon 1.111 O-PPP
62. Stan 1.106 O-PPP
104. SDSU 1.081 O-PPP

EFFICIENT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE | eFG%

(Three-Point FG’s Weighted 50% More)

8. Mich 55.5% eFG
13. MchSt 54.7% eFG
16. UCLA 54.4% eFG
18. IowSt 54.3% eFG
29. Louvl 53.6% eFG
31. Wisc 53.4% eFG
44. Fla 52.6% eFG
50. Daytn 52.4% eFG
68. Ariz 52% eFG
68. Baylr 52% eFG
82. Stan 51.6% eFG
86. UCon 51.5% eFG
104. UVa 51.2% eFG
160. UKy 49.8% eFG
170. Tenn 49.6% eFG
282. SDSU 46.8% eFG

3-POINT RATE (% of Points from Deep)

32. Mich 40.3% 3-Distribution
40. Wisc 40.0% 3-Distribution
61, IowSt 38.0% 3-Distribution
92. MchSt 35.8% 3-Distribution
109. Louvl 35.2% 3-Distribution
116. Fla 35.0 % 3-Distribution
127. Baylr 34.5% 3-Distribution
145. UCon 34% 3-Distribution
205. Daytn 31.5% 3-Distribution
221. Tenn 31% 3-Distribution
252. UVa 29.6% 3-Distribution
264. Stan 29.1% 3-Distribution
284. UKy 28.3% 3-Distribution
303. UCLA 27.4% 3-Distribution
321. Ariz 26.6% 3-Distribution
331. SDSU 25.6% 3-Distribution

3-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE

6. Mich 40.0% Three-Pointers
14. MchSt 39.4% Three-Pointers
17. UCon 39.2% Three-Pointers
30. UCLA 38.6% Three-Pointers
30. Baylr 38.6% Three-Pointers
52. Daytn 37.6% Three-Pointers
52. Wisc 37.6% Three-Pointers
67. Louvl 37.0% Three-Pointers
67. UVa 37.0% Three-Pointers
67. Stan 37.0% Three-Pointers
87. Fla 36.1% Three-Pointers
87. Ariz 36.1% Three-Pointers
102. IowSt 35.8% Three-Pointers
172. SDSU 34.3% Three-Pointers
240. UKy 32.7% Three-Pointers
293. Tenn 32.0% Three-Pointers

FREE THROW RATE (% of Points from FT Line)

16. UKy 26.7% FT Rate
61. SDSU 24.4% FT Rate
98. Tenn 23.5% FT Rate
104. Stan 23.3% FT Rate
104. Wisc 23.3% FT Rate
130. Baylr 23.0% FT Rate
160. UCon 22.3% FT Rate
192. UVa 21.8% FT Rate
230. Fla 21.0% FT Rate
230. Daytn 21.0% FT Rate
230. UCLA 21% FT Rate
262. Ariz 20.6% FT Rate
276. Louvl 20.3% FT Rate
307. Mich 19.6% FT Rate
322. IowSt 19.2% FT Rate
341. MchSt 18.0% FT Rate

FREE THROW SHOOTING PERCENTAGE

9. UCon 76.5%
10. Mich 76.2%
23. UCLA 75.0%
28. Wisc 74.4%
90. Tenn 72.1%
161. MchSt 70.4%
164. Stan 70.3%
180. IowSt 70.2%
224. UKy 68.4%
250. Daytn 68.0%
252. Baylr 67.8%
267. SDSU 67.1%
267. UVa 67.1%
286. Fla 66.4%
290. Louvl 66.3%
313. Ariz 65.5%

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING%

(Team % Rebs that are Offensive)

2. UKy 42.0% OReb
3. Baylr 40.6% OReb
4. Tenn 40.0% OReb
23. Louvl 37.2% OReb
26. Ariz 36.5% OReb
35. SDSU 35.7% OReb
40. Fla 35.6% OReb
72. Daytn 35.5% OReb
93. UVa 34.4% OReb
103. MchSt 33.4% OReb
188. UCon 31.1% OReb
223. UCLA 30.1% OReb
255. Mich 29.0% OReb
255. Stan 29.0% OReb
270. IowSt 28.5% OReb
278. Wisc 28.1% OReb

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE
(% of Possessions ending in Turnover)

2. Wisc 12.6% T-Over Rate
10. IowSt 14.6% T-Over Rate
10. UCLA 14.6% T-Over Rate
10. Mich 14.6% T-Over Rate
22. SDSU 15.2% T-Over Rate
25. Louvl 15.3% T-Over Rate
36. Ariz 16.0% T-Over Rate
65. UVa 16.6% T-Over Rate
73. Stan 17.0% T-Over Rate
73. Tenn 17.0% T-Over Rate
90. MchSt 17.2% T-Over Rate
108. UCon 17.4% T-Over Rate
126. Fla 17.6% T-Over Rate
146. Baylr 18.0% T-Over Rate
167. Daytn 18.3% T-Over Rate
167. UKy 18.3% T-Over Rate

ASSIST PERCENTAGE
(% of Scores that are Assisted)

9. IowSt 63.0% Assist Rate
13. MchSt 62.0% Assist Rate
26. UCLA 60.0% Assist Rate
41. Ariz 58.0% Assist Rate
41. Baylr 58.0% Assist Rate
66. UVa 56.8% Assist Rate
74. Mich 56.1% Assist Rate
111. Louvl 54.3% Assist Rate
120. Fla 53.8% Assist Rate
173. Daytn 51.2% Assist Rate
181. UCon 51.1% Assist Rate
210. Wisc 50.0% Assist Rate
210. Tenn 50.0% Assist Rate
296. Stan 46.3% Assist Rate
308. UKy 45.5% Assist Rate
349. SDSU 40.0% Assist Rate

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
(Points Per Possession Allowed)

1. Ariz 0.872 D-PPP
2. Fla 0.888 D-PPP
3. Louvl 0.894 D-PPP
5. UVa 0.899 D-PPP
7. SDSU 0.903 D-PPP
11. UCon 0.932 D-PPP
17. Tenn 0.942 D-PPP
25. UKy 0.960 D-PPP
36. Stan 0.974 D-PPP
41. MchSt 0.967 D-PPP
45. UCLA 0.970 D-PPP
55. Wisc 0.983 D-PPP
59. IowSt 0.988 D-PPP
73. Daytn 0.999 D-PPP
77. Baylr 1.002 D-PPP
96. Mich 1.011 D-PPP

EFFICIENT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE DEFENSE
eFG% Defense (3-Pt FG Defense Weighted 50% More)

1. Ariz 42.2% eFG Defense
6. Louvl 43.8% eFG Defense
8. UVa 44.0% eFG Defense
10. SDSU 44.1% eFG Defense
11. UCon 44.3% eFG Defense
21. Fla 45.0% eFG Defense
30. UKy 45.4% eFG Defense
44. Tenn 46.0% eFG Defense
44. MchSt 46.0% eFG Defense
85. IowSt 47.4% eFG Defense
91. Wisc 47.6% eFG Defense
99. Stan 47.8% eFG Defense
121. Baylr 48.5% eFG Defense
131. Mich 49.0% eFG Defense
147. Daytn 49.2% eFG Defense
167. UCLA 49.7% eFG Defense

3-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGE DEFENSE

2. Louvl 28.6% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
18. SDSU 30.6% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
36. Mich 31.3% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
55. Ariz 32.0% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
55. UKy 32.0% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
65. UVa 32.2% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
95. Fla 33.0% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
95. UCon 33.0% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
120. MchSt 33.5% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
120. Daytn 33.5% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
134. IowSt 33.7% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
134. Tenn 33.7% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
171. UCLA 34.3% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
174. Wisc 34.4% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
203. Stan 35.0% Three-Point Shooting Allowed
243. Baylr 35.5% Three-Point Shooting Allowed

BLOCKED SHOT PERCENTAGE

(% Op Shots Blocked)

10. UCon 15.7% Op Shots Blocked
12. UKy 15.4% Op Shots Blocked
19. Baylr 14.2% Op Shots Blocked
27. SDSU 13.7% Op Shots Blocked
32. MchSt 13.6% Op Shots Blocked
52. Louvl 12.6% Op Shots Blocked
66. UVa 12.0% Op Shots Blocked
83. Ariz 11.6% Op Shots Blocked
97. Stan 11.4% Op Shots Blocked
104. Tenn 11.3% Op Shots Blocked
206. UCLA 9.0% Op Shots Blocked
224. Fla 8.5% Op Shots Blocked
238. Wisc 8.1% Op Shots Blocked
273. Daytn 7.2% Op Shots Blocked
285. IowSt 7.0% Op Shots Blocked
301. Mich 6.6% Op Shots Blocked

STEAL PERCENTAGE
(% Op Possessions ending in Steal)

2. Louvl 14.6% Steals
4. UCLA 13.1% Steals
21. Fla 11.5% Steals
21. SDSU 11.5% Steals
45. UCon 10.6% Steals
64. MchSt 10.3% Steals
141. Ariz 9.3% Steals
163. Daytn 9.1% Steals
207. Mich 8.6% Steals
241. UVa 8.2% Steals
241. IowSt 8.2% Steals
258. Tenn 8.0% Steals
270. Wisc 7.8% Steals
270. Baylr 7.8% Steals
276. Stan 7.7% Steals
315. UKy 7.1% Steals

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE DEFENSE
(% Op Possessions ending in Turnover)

2. Louvl 25.2% T-Over Rate Defense
17. Fla 21.8% T-Over Rate Defense
37. SDSU 20.8% T-Over Rate Defense
46. UCLA 20.4% T-Over Rate Defense
86. UCon 19.6% T-Over Rate Defense
100. Ariz 19.3% T-Over Rate Defense
122. Daytn 19.1% T-Over Rate Defense
163. UVa 18.4% T-Over Rate Defense
200. MchSt 18.0% T-Over Rate Defense
241. Mich 17.2% T-Over Rate Defense
241. Stan 17.2% T-Over Rate Defense
263. Tenn 16.8% T-Over Rate Defense
300. UKy 16.2% T-Over Rate Defense
308. IowSt 16.0% T-Over Rate Defense
316 Baylr 15.8% T-Over Rate Defense
316. Wisc 15.8% T-Over Rate Defense

All the best, guys

MORATORIUM? No Comments

WORN OUT SPORTS TERMINOLOGY

  • “I/we must come out & be AGGRESSIVE”
  • “I/we must come out & be FOCUSED”
  • Description of ANY athlete as a “COMPETITOR”
  • Description of ANY athlete as a “BEAST”
  • Team(s) on the “BUBBLE”
  • (Reece Davis especially), describing any gadget play as “TRICKERATION”
  • Any forced or poorly devised shot that miraculously banks in; yet sarcastically (after the basketball game seemingly converting to Team “H-O-R-S-E”), shouldn’t count due to the shooter failing to, “CALL BANK”

WORN-OUT SPORTS WORDS

  • ‘GREAT’
  • ‘AMAZING’

Many, many more to add to our moratorium as time permits

2014 College Basketball Why is Scoring UP again? January 19, 2014 No Comments

COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2013-2014

INCREASED SCORING | REASONS & ASSESSMENT 

Despite the so-called runaway increases in scoring, Non-OT College Basketball Games have fallen UNDER the listed Game Total at a staggering 57.75% rate (Vegas). Sportsbooks’ seizing opportunities to profit from “perception vs. reality”…should not come as a shock.

So much written about 2013-2014 Rule ENFORCEMENT protocol changes
Intended to clean up improper Defensive play, espn.com & cbssports.com, among others (Brennan/ESPN | Norlander/CBS)

These early Dec expose’ detailing increased scoring concluded that average scoring totals were up, WAY up. They (arguably) may have waited for all data to stabilize, since their sample size was categorically skewed.

The expected increase scoring in college basketball was definitely seen & felt
It was compounded from all the crazy-high scoring shootouts in November 2013 (over 115 games reached the 100’s)

Division I College Basketball Scoring was UP 5.7 points per game, a robust 8.5% increase, on November 30, 2013.

All these November 2013 shootouts should have been seen as idiosyncratic & unique in many aspects.

For starters, the number of neutral site matchups was way up in 2013. November and early December 2013 neutral matchups were up by a staggering 45% (Especially Thanksgiving Tournaments and various Invitational ‘start-ups’)

December 2013 scoring then dropped like a rock, as we might have expected (a 43.38% ‘smaller increase’ than November 2013), even before an always-expected drop each January, with Conference games.

College Basketball fans and analysis’s alike probably still hold a collective scoreboard brain-freeze, “Photographic memory lock”, with memorized triple-digit scores from late-November 2013. The assumption that prolific scoring is the order of the day in 2014 College Basketball reigns supreme.

Facts suggest College Basketball scoring is stabilizing

½ way thru 2013-14 College Basketball Season (vs. 2012-13)

  • More Personal Fouls (+2.9 Avg)

  • More Free Throws (+2 FTM and +3 FTA Avg)

  • Shorter Individual Tm Poss (0.7 Sec shorter)

  • More Tm Poss/Gm (+2.7 | 66.7 to 69.4 Avg, | 4.1% increase)

OVERALL, AVG TEAM POINT TOTAL IS 72.1 THRU Jan 19, 2014.
UP +4.7 PPG from same time last year (67.5)

Lastly, we keep hearing that TURNOVERS are DOWN, which is a ‘primary component of scoring increases

Sort of….yet not really

Turnovers are in fact, ‘down’
We had be best served to take a deeper look into considering why.

Possessions ending in Turnovers are down 1.5% (18.5% in 2013-14, from 20.0% this time in 2012-13).

The universal 2013-2014 de-emphasis and eventual, stated goal of officiating elimination of Offensive ‘Charging’ Personal Fouls is a primary and entirely interconnected piece of the 2013-2014 turnover puzzle.

Charges have been called an average of >1.3 times less per game this year.

Since Charging is, after all, a turnover, all but 0.2% of this so-called ‘decrease in turnovers’ may be directly attributed to fewer Charges being whistled in 2013-2014.

Perception = Reality? Not always.

FYI, as always.

2014 PAC-12 Basketball Conference Openers January 2, 2014 No Comments

2013-2014 Week 1 in “The Conference of Champions”
Off we go into PAC-12 Basketball with our biggest plays are in “The Mountains”
____________

Thu Jan 2, 2014 | 8:05 PM, EST | PAC-12 Network
Huntsman Center | Salt Lake City, Utah

#10 OREGON DUCKS 12-0 (9-1 ATS)
UTAH UTES 11-1 (6-1 ATS)

Ducks Projected Starting Lineup

ORE 5-08 | 163 Sr Johnathan Loyd
ORE 6-02 | 185 Jr Joseph Young (Houston Trsf)
ORE 6-02 | 171 Sr Jason Calliste (Detroit Trsf)
ORE 6-05 | 209 So Damyean Dotson
ORE 6-08 | 211 Sr Mike Moser (UNLV via UCLA Trsf)

Ducks Bench Contributors

ORE 6-01 | 188 So Dominic Artis (2013 Starter, back from 10 Gm Sspn)
ORE 6-06 | 206 So Elgin Cook
ORE 6-08 | 224 Sr Richard Amardi
ORE 6-08 | 222 So Ben Carter (Back from 10 Gm Sspn)
ORE 6-11 | 257 Sr Waverly Austin

Utes Projected Starting Lineup

UTAH 5-10 | 162 So Brandon Taylor
UTAH 6-05 | 180 Jr Delon Wright (JC Trsf | Top UU Scorer at 16 PPG | 74% eFG = #5 NCAA)
UTAH 6-06 | 222 So Jordan Loveridge
UTAH 6-05 | 190 So Dakarai Tucker
UTAH 6-09 | 221 Sr Renan Lenz

Utes Bench Contributors

UTAH 6-03 | 185 Fr Parker Van Dyke
UTAH 6-05 | 211 Jr Princeton Onwas
UTAH 6-05 | 192 Fr Ahmad Fields
UTAH 6-06 | 190 Fr Kenneth Ogbe
UTAH 6-10 | 228 So Jeremy Olsen
UTAH 7-00 | 252 Jr Dallin Bachynski (So Utah Trsf)

2013-14 UTAH
 #1 NCAA w/60.7% Two-Point FG%
#7 NCAA eFG (57.6%)

Conference opener features PAC-12’s TOP-2 most improved early season teams

Utah is the #1 most improved team in PAC-12 (Nov 10 thru Dec 31, 2013)
Utah is up 81 Power Rating Spots (Ken Pomeroy), #69 from #150
Oregon is up 35 Spots, #21 from #56

Nonetheless, UU has played 1 True Road Game;
The Utes covered in a rough loss at Boise, 69-67

OREGON

oregon ducks 85 logo

Most/all of my write-up for Oregon vs. Illinois game 16 days ago (in Portland) applies today

Oregon is riding high
ORE is nearly topping NCAA in PPG 90.7 (#2)
ORE is also on cusp of the BEST TEAM in CBB in shooting
ORE #4 eFG% (60%)
ORE #5 Offensive Efficiency (1.174 PPP)

Furthermore, adding to Oregon’s value is the added presence of Dominic Artis
Artis rejoined Ducks after missing Oregon’s initial 10 Games of 2013-14 (suspension)
Artis was one of Oregon’s 2 premier gems landed in HC Altman’s 2011-12 recruiting class
Neither Artis nor Damyean Dotson disappointed in 2012-13
Both started, & increased collective productivity dramatically as season advanced

As projected, when ‘juiced’ UNLV, via UCLA-Transfer
ORE 6-8 | 212 Sr Mike Mosier takes Ducks from really good to superb

Oregon is exceptionally good on offense

Mosier is an absolute STEAL for ORE HC Altman
Mosier is the ideal fit for Ducks diagonal back/pick scheme
Mosier is one of 7 Oregon Upperclassmen, which comprise ORE top 9 contributors

ORE Loyd | ORE Calliste | ORE Young | ORE Cook
Are devastatingly efficient when Ducks have rock

EACH in TOP-50 in terms of individual Offensive Rating (Between 120–150)

On top of this, Oregon is outrageously balanced
Oregon % of Team Points

  • C-Post 19%
  • P-Fwd 21%
  • S-Fwd 19%
  • S-Grd 21%
  • P-Grd 20%

Nearly perfect balance

ORE also averages +16 more FTA than their opponents

Oregon continues to reverse their primary 2012-13 bugaboo:
Turnovers.

ORE is only turning ball over 16% of their possession (Top 15%)
ORE is forcing opponents into a 25% Turnovers Rate
This is a positive reversal for the Ducks;
ORE was on the flip side of this turnover differential last season
(2012-2013 ORE 2 Freshman Starting Guards)

As we stated back on Dec 14,
For any team to succeed vs. furiously explosive Oregon Ducks
A team will have to get to line or get scorching hot or BOTH

UTAH

UU

#5 in NCAA in eFG% (57.6%)
Even so, Utes Offense is still not all that productive

UU obtains over 3/5ths of their Points from Two Point Range

UU has also relied heavy as always on So 6-6 Jordan Loveridge
2013-14 UU found the all-important 2ND scorer
Utah exceptionally surprising productivity & early season scoring

UU’s JC Trsf Delon Wright is #5 NCAA in Offensive Rating (74.5% eFG!)

WRIGHT: 32 MIN | 15 PPG | 74% FG | 5.6 AST | 7 Reb
Wright has also proven he’s nearly as good at Defense, also

Loveridge effectiveness has soared w/Wright in Backcourt

UU made a valiant comeback at BOISE
UU’s only Road Game before Jan 8 (13 of UU’s First 14 Games are at Home)

UU really struggled vs. UP TEMPO Teams last year
(USC | UCLA | OreSt)
Utah will finally get the ultimate test in Conference play
w/#2 PAC-12 Tempo, Oregon (71.4 Poss/G)
Followed by 2012-13 top PAC-12 Tempo Team, Oregon State in right after

Utah has been good offensively,
Yet not as great as we’d assume for an 11-1, TOP 2% NCAA FG Team (60.7%)
Utah gains under 20% of their Points from FT line
(UU averages +7 more FTA than their opponents)

Utah neither shoots many nor allow many FT’s as a % of their Point Total

Utes understated yet palpable component of UU’s team personality:
Utah is exceedingly guard-heavy

Oregon’s Defensive Proficiency has dropped a bit (#79 NCAA | #8 PAC-12)
However, this is clearly due to Oregon’s continual Offensive surge
ORE brings the most proficient Offense in the PAC-12 & 9TH BEST NCAA
(ORE currently scores 1.174 Points Per Possession)

Oregon has topped 100 Points 4x in their last 10 Games (Nearly ½ of their last 10)
Removing Oregon’s 71-64 Win over deliberate Illinois
OREGON HAS SCORED 101 PPG IN THEIR REMAINING 4 RECENT GAMES
ORE #79 Defense is SPARKLING number when we considering Ducks hot-blooded 90.7 PPG Offensive Avg!

Moreover, ORE brings THE 3rd best eFG% into this week (58.1%)
7 of Oregon’s 12 Key Offensive Stats are BEST in PAC-12
& 9 of these 12 are BETTER than #1 RATED ARIZONA’s numbers

After covering their initial 9 spreads,
Vegas pointspreads finally caught up to Ducks
Oregon couldn’t cover their last 2 Games
(BYU & Morgan State narrow ATS Wins)
UU hasn’t failed to cover any of their last 5 substandard OOC Opponents

Really like Oregon to cruise in S-L-C.

PREDICTED SCORE
OREGON 80
UTAH 69

__________

Thu Jan 2, 2014 | 10:05 PM, EST | ESPN-U
Coors Events Center | Boulder, Colorado

OREGON STATE BEAVERS 8-4 (5-5 ATS)
#20 COLORADO BUFFALOES 11-2 (9-3-1 ATS)

Beavers Projected Starting Lineup

ORST 6-03 | 200 Jr Challe Barton
ORST 6-04 | 201 Sr Roberto Nelson
ORST 6-07 | 200 So Victor Robbins
ORST 6-10 | 246 Sr Angus Brandt
ORST 6-08 | 216 Sr Devon Collier

Beavers Bench Contributors

ORST 6-03 | 186 Fr Hallice Cooke
ORST 6-02 | 205 Fr Malcolm Duvivier
ORST 6-07 | 230 So Jarmal Reid
ORST 6-10 | 226 So Olaf Schaftenaar

Beavers Player Out

ORST 6-10 | 213 So Eric Moreland (Sspd until Jan 9, 2014)

BREAKING NEWS – MORELAND MADE TRIP & WILL PLAY

Buffaloes Projected Starting Lineup

Just Two Upperclass Contributors (Zero Seniors)
13TH ‘Least Experienced’ D-I Team

COLO 6-02 | 170 Jr Askia Booker
COLO 6-06 | 200 Jr Spencer Dinwiddie
COLO 6-07 | 220 So Xavier Johnson
COLO 6-09 | 225 Fr Wesley Gordon
COLO 6-10 | 245 So Josh Scott

Buffaloes Bench Contributors

COLO 6-02 | 180 So Xavier Talton
COLO 6-05 | 190 Fr Jaron Hopkins
COLO 6-07 | 220 Fr Dustin Thomas
COLO 6-07 | 200 Fr Tre’Shaun Fletcher

CU +14 O-Reb Margin | +21.4 FTA|FGA Margin

OREGON STATE

imgresimages-1OSU is just Weak D, especially on perimeter

Beavers losing Defensive sparkplug, Sr-to-be PG Starks (Ill Trsf)
Leaves OSU without a real Defensive stopper in Backcourt

OSU’s #1 Scorer (PAC-12 #1 PPG, Nelson)
Is expected to be doubled vs. hard line defensive teams

Since HC Robinson & his OSU team went ‘up-tempo’
The Beavers Defensive numbers have vacated from OSU stat sheets

On the court, OSU seems to take much more assertiveness at WITH the Ball

OSU, when playing DePaul, was an illuminating, simple assessment was outlined.
DePaul TV Color commentator, when asked if Blue Demons might score in 90’s more often:

“I genuinely didn’t know much about Oregon State except to say,
DePaul will not see weaker, more non-disciplined Defensive Team than Oregon State,
Before or since this DePaul Game vs. Beavers’

Simply put, Beavers don’t have a real perimeter scorer besides Nelson,
And Beavers sincerely do not exemplify any serious team Defensive acumen
They gain BACK one active Frontcourt Defensive force NEXT week
When 6-11 Erick Moreland returns from ½ Season suspension on Jan 9

CU’s assertive backcourt, (Booker/Dinwiddie/Hopkins/Talton)
Will undoubtedly be on Roberto Nelson with ‘gusto’

COLORADO

cubuffs

Colorado’s added advantage is simply their supreme effort
CU’s number exemplify a team that plays to whistle;
CU plays w/‘assume every shot is missed’ Rebounding style
(COLO is #8 NCAA with 28.5% of their Points from FT Line)

Buffs signature win over KANSAS catapulted Buffs confidence,
Colorado feared they’d have trouble replacing Roberson’s Board work …  They have NOT had this issue thus far

CU has outrebounded all but one of their 2013-2014 opponents
CU has outrebounded their last five opponents by 57 Total Boards (10.4/Game)

CU’s concerns w/replacing Roberson’s role as a ’2nd scorer (To augment Dinwiddie)?
Buffs Josh Scott & his 13 PPG on 55% FG Shooting has filled in exceptionally well, here
CU’s X Johnson & A Booker also combine to averaging 20 PPG collectively, also.

Colorado’s four touted Freshmen are giving Buffaloes solid production from Bench (Freshman Jaron Hopkins has nailed 8-20 from 3-Point range)

In the altitude of Boulder, I expect CU to roll over the Beavers

PREDICTED SCORE
OREGON STATE 66
COLORADO 83

____________

Thu Jan 2, 2014 | 9:05 PM, EST | Fox-1
Maples Pavilion | Stanford, California

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS 9-4 (5-7 ATS)
STANFORD CARDINAL 9-3 (6-3-1 ATS)

Bears Projected Starting Lineup

CAL 6-03 | 192 Sr Justin Cobbs
CAL 6-05 | 190 So Tyrone Wallace
CAL 6-06 | 188 Fr Jabari Bird (Questionable: Ankle Injury)
CAL 6-09 | 221 Jr David Kravish
CAL 6-10 | 236 Sr Richard Solomon

Bears Bench Contributors

CAL 6-04 | 196 Fr Sam Singer
CAL 7-00 | 271 Fr Kameron Rooks
CAL 6-07 | 200 Fr Roger Moute a Bidias
CAL 6-07 | 223 Sr Jeff Powers
CAL 6-04 | 200 Fr Jordan Mathews Jabari Bird

Bears Injury

CAL 6-06 | 210 Jr Ricky Kreklow (OUT)

Cardinal Projected Starting Lineup

STAN 6-02 | 185 Jr Chasson Randle
STAN 6-06 | 217 Jr Anthony Brown
STAN 6-07 | 228 Sr Josh Huestis
STAN 6-10 | 240 Sr Dwight Powell
STAN 6-11 | 245 Jr Stefan Nastic

Cardinal Bench Contributors

21% Bench Minutes (4th Lowest D-I)

STAN 6-10 | 225 Sr John Gage

Cardinal Injury

STAN 5-11 | 176 Sr Aaron Bright (INJ out for ‘career’)

CALIFORNIA

cal logo

California entered 2013-14 w/a strong yet truncated roster
After Bears anticipated loss of polished scoring machine, Alan Crabbe to NBA

Cal HC Mike Montgomery landed a decent & deep Freshman Class
w/designs for Bears’ to merging youth w/HC Monty’s accomplished players
The gem of the Cal Freshman class is 6-07 | 188 Jabari Bird

Bird has been justifiably shaky at times
Yet 18 year-old would & hasn’t always dazzled,
Yet, Bird leads the Bears in 3-Pointers made (18) and 3% (40%)

Bird had finest BIG game vs. Cal’s best opponent
Bird poured in 17 Pts in a 92-81 loss to Syracuse

Just as Cal was nearing Conference season,
Bird is OUT for ‘a while’ after suffering a moderately sprained ankle at Creighton

Bird was beginning to struggle as teams scouted
(4-18 deep last 6 Games Played)

Bears are now compelled to play heavily 4 additional Key Freshmen bigger minutes
(6-04 | 196 Singer, 7-00 | 271 Rooks, 6-07 | 200 Moute a Bidias, 6-04 | 200 Mathews)

STANFORD

SU

J Dawkins Cardinal is a Big, Fast & explosive spread team

Stanford’s Tempo gets a little higher each season under Dawkins
(SU is 3rd ‘thinnest’ team, less production & minutes from bench in PAC-12)

Stanford has the appearance of a team w/all sorts of depth-related issues
The Cardinal still struggles w/Teams that draw fouls & Guard-strong teams
Cal shouldn’t present too much trouble for the Cardinal in any of these depts.

SU is battle tested – Two Tough losses to Pitt a shootout vs. BYU
Stanford just recently BEAT UConn, 53-51

Cardinal is #1 MOST experienced team in PAC-12 (#18 NCAA | 2.4 Year Avg)

Cardinal are tremendously balanced:
SU #53 NCAA Rated Offensive Proficiency (1.103 O-PPP)
SU #53 NCAA Rated Defensive Proficiency (0.981 D-PPP)

Stanford has mastered the science of off-set tempo control
SU has a dazzling ‘4 Sec differential’
Stanford uses FOUR FULLSECONDS Less time (per poss) than their opp

Stanford may STILL be a little undervalued
Since Stanford’s early season injuries to A Bright & Gage’s return

SU’s loss of Bright will continue to hurt The Cardinal Backcourt

Yet, The Cardinal have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4
Cal is 2-5 in their last 7

I like the thin yet sturdy Cardinal at Home here

PREDICTED SCORE
CALIFORNIA 65
STANFORD 78
____________

Thu Jan 2, 2014 | 8:05 PM, EST | ESPN-U
Wells Fargo Arena | Tempe, Arizona

WASHINGTON HUSKIES 8-5 (3-8 ATS)
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS 11-2 (7-4 ATS)

Huskies Projected Starting Lineup

WASH 6-02 | 196 So Andrew Andrews
WASH 6-03 | 187 Fr Nigel Williams-Goss
WASH 6-04 | 197 Jr Mike Anderson
WASH 6-05 | 195 Sr C.J. Wilcox
WASH 6-09 | 275 Sr Perris Blackwell (San Francisco for 3 Years | Trsf)

Huskies Bench Contributors
(22% Bench Minutes | 12th Lowest D-I)

WASH 6-05 | 200 Fr Darin Johnson
WASH 6-07 | 227 Jr Desmond Simmons (Back on 12/22/13 from Knee Inj)
WASH 6-09 | 252 Jr Shawn Kemp (Health Issue: Graves Disease)
WASH 7-00 | 235 So Gilles Dierickx (FIU Trsf)

Sun Devils Projected Starting Lineup

AZST 6-07 | 218 Jr Jonathan Gilling
AZST 5-10 | 178 So Jahii Carson
AZST 6-05 | 205 Fr Egor Koulechov
or
AZST 6-05 | 202 Jr Shaquielle McKissic (JC Trsf | Edmonds, WA C.C.)
AZST 7-02 | 252 Sr Jordan Bachynski
AZST 6-04 | 215 Sr Jermaine Marshall (Pn St Multi-Yr Starter Trsf)

Sun Devils Bench Contributors

AZST 6-02 | 182 Fr Chance Murray
AZST 6-07 | 222 Sr Richie Edwards (Valpo Trsf)

WASHINGTON

uw images

Three story lines for the 2013-14 Huskies:

1.  DISTRESSING INJURIES TO UW BIGS

WASH 6-10 | 221 So Jernard Jarreau out for year
WASH 7-00 | 242 So Giles Dierickx out for Az trip, it appears both
PLUS
WASH 6-07 | 224 Jr Desmond Simmons, was lost for first 10 of UW’s 13 Games
Simmons was a 14 game 2012-2013 starter
Working back into game shape from Mid-Nov Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
WASH 6-09 | 252 Jr Shawn Kemp, Jr
Recently disclosed his lifelong battle w/Graves Disease
(which may elucidate much of the disappointment characterized Kemp’s 2½ seasons in Seattle)

2. UW DEPENDENCE ON 6-05 | 195 SR CJ WILCOX

  • Wilcox is #1 PAC-12 % of Team Minutes Played (88%)
  • Wilcox is #1 PAC-12 Total Minutes Played (468)
  • Wilcox is #1 PAC-12 Average MPG Played (36 minutes per game)
  • Wilcox is #2 PAC-12 PPG (20.5 PPG)

When Wilcox is doubled or beleaguered, UW suffers
UW hung on to beat lowly Long Beach State in 2 OT’s
When Wilcox wasn’t hitting (5-17), UW still nearly lost as 9-Point Favorites
Despite making +18 FT’s, +5 Rebs, w/6 Players in D-Figures

Wilcox has hit double-digit scoring in all 13 of UW’s 2013-2014 Games
He also scored in double-figures in 22 of Dawgs first 23 games of 2012-2013
Till February when UW entered the 2ND Half of Conference play (+Postseason)

FOUR of UW’s final 11 PAC-12 opponents held Wilcox in single-digits
UW Wilcox was hedged, jacketed, doubled, & harassed over last ½ of 2013 Season
Conference teams drove Wilcox’ season numbers down to end 2012-2013 season
Wilcox finished -4.2 Fewer PPG (21 PPG midseason into his final 16.8 PPG Avg) &
Wilcox finished -7.6% lower FG (49.3% FG midseason into his final 41.9% FG avg)

3. WASHINGTON 2013-2014 DEFENSIVE FAILURE(S)

After ½ Decade of UW HC Lorenzo Romar’s Dawgs proving their proficient Defense
UW has finished in top ¼ NCAA efficient Defense & Top third of PAC-12 Efficient Defense

UW 2013-2014 Defense has allowed an inexplicable 79.2 PPG
Worse yet, UW’s #289 NCAA Defensive Pts Per Possession (1.094 PPP Allowed)

This is a likely a result of UW’s lack of their Frontcourt Depth
Romar’s Dawgs have continually proclaimed trademark energetic interior D &

Washington lost their vigorous Defensive Sr trio from 2012-13
Gone are UW’s Gaddy, Suggs & N’Daiye

These 2013-2014 Dawgs are a chancy play in any situation

ARIZONA STATE

azst-script

4-Transfers aside,
These Devs ALSO have a lotta points & % contributions in ONE PLAYER
Last year’s PAC-12 Player of the Year runner-up, ASU Fr Jahii Carson

So much more to get to here w/Devils
We will in time

PREDICTED SCORE
WASHINGTON 70
ARIZONA STATE 82

Thu Jan 2, 2014 | 7:05 PM, EST | PAC-12 Network
McKale Center | Tucson, Arizona

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS 7-5 (3-5 ATS)
#1 ARIZONA WILDCATS 13-0 (9-2 ATS)

Cougars Projected Starting Lineup

WZU 6-03 | 180 Jr Royce Woolridge
WZU 6-04 | 215 Jr DaVonte Lacy (OUT – EMERGENCY SURGERY 12/29)
WZU 6-05 | 205 Fr Que Johnson
WZU 6-07 | 190 Jr Dexter Kernich-Drew
WZU 6-10 | 250 Sr D.J. Shelton

Cougars Bench Contributors
(36% Bench Minutes | Top ¼ NCAA Depth)

WZU 7-00 | 245 Jr Jordan Railey
WZU 6-07 | 240 So Junior Longrus
WZU 6-02 | 190 Fr Ike Iroegbu
WZU 6-06 | 195 Sr Will DiIorio (Back from Nov 2013 Ankle Inj)

Wildcats Projected Starting Lineup
(No Cats’ Starter Averages Over 30 MPG)

ARIZ 6-01 | 195 Jr T.J. McConnell (Trsf)
ARIZ 6-03 | 200 Jr Nick Johnson (Ret S)
ARIZ 6-08 | 230 So Brandon Ashley (St 21 of 31 L-Yr)
ARIZ 6-09 | 225 Fr Aaron Gordon
ARIZ 7-00 | 235 So Kaleb Tarczewski (Ret S)

Wildcats Bench Contributors

ARIZ 6-03 | 180 So Gabe York (5 Min Gm L-Yr)
ARIZ 6-03 | 190 Sr Jordin Mayes (12 Min Gm L-Yr)
ARIZ 6-07 | 215 Fr Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

UA WZU

WAZZU

Wazzu may be intensely undervalued here

ESPECIALLY w/o DeVonte Lacy
The Cougs were nothing if not Guard-Strong
Lacy & Woolridge are decent vets’ of Ken Bone’s screen-away scheme
Cougs have good size & frustrate teams w/their surprisingly deliberate game

images-2

WZU DeVonte Lacy is #1 Deep ball shooter in PAC-12 (53.3%)

UPDATE:

WZU LACY is OUT (Emergency Appendectomy)
WZU Woolridge is a solid Jr, #3 PAC-12 in FTR (60 FTA)

ARIZONA

images

Cats open New Year & Conference Season as nearly unanimous AP #1
‘Nowhere to go but down’
Arizona is obviously worthy of the top spot
So many of AZ’s proficiency stats are inexpressibly exceptional

#1 AP | #4 RPI Sean Miller bringing Two Freshman Sensations
Especially their most celebrated & highest rated Fr Aaron Gordon into the fold somewhat slowly

Gordon is LEADING AZ w/29.9 MPG

TWO KEY FR Gordon & Jefferson play heavy min (#1 and #4 Arizona Minutes Played)
½ of Az’s key contributors are NEW Az Players
Dqsne Trsf McConnell w/7 Assists/Game,
Has transformed Arizona into a multi-faceted, versatile group

AZ McConnell has 3rd Best Assist/Turnover % in the NCAA
Nick Johnson Role as Asst Player has rapidly changed
Johnson Asst Rate dropped, yet
Johnson needed for PPG; D-Figures in all of AZ Games (16 PPG)

Az still Turns ball over nearly as much as their Opponents
Az FT% is weak
Az Ashley is scoring at a 15½ PPG Mark
(Ashley was bigger scorer during season as Fr)
Ashley still has hard time staying on Court 3.6 PF/Game

Az routinely struggles w/teams that play ‘energetic’ accelerated tempo
Wazzu doesn’t fit this Model

Lastly, Az has entered the past several seasons scalding hot,
As this time in long season, Cats’ have less motivation than usual
2012: AZ started 1-4 ATS,
2013: AZ stole heavy favorites

I am still valuing Wazzu here
As the 4th most experienced Team in Conf even w/o 19 PPG of Lacy
These Cougs could hang around with little to motivate Cats

Poor Offense & even MORE DELIBERATE pace assured by Cougs
w/Cats inclined to play at their 2nd slowest PAC-12 Pace

These two teams are already the most deliberate teams in PAC-12
   11.  Ariz (65.7 Poss/Game)
   12. Wzu (65.4 Poss/Game)

Cougs & Cats should be content to play half court basketball all night

PREDICTED SCORE
WASHINGTON STATE 55
ARIZONA 77

All the best, guys

CFB WK 10: Devils at Cougs | Trojans at Beavs November 1, 2013 No Comments

WEEK 10 

Thu Oct 31, 2013 | 10:35 PM, EDT | ESPN
Martin Stadium | Pullman, Washington

#25 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS 5-2 (3-1 Conf | 3-3 ATS)
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS 4-4 (2-3 Conf | 4-2 ATS)

ASU Sun Devils still control their path to the PAC-12 Title Game

Devs are rested, healthy & primed for a huge November
ASU has faced two of the best 3 Defenses in this Conference
Yet, AZST remains #2 Overall in PAC-12 Scoring (44 PPG) & Total Offense (507 YPG)
These Devs are 3-1 in PAC-12
ASU’s two 2013 losses came by a combined 17 Points … both away from Home
vs. Teams that were combined 23-2 Regular Season last year

azst-script

images-2
Moreover, ASU is STILL loaded as ever;
Yet, unnoticed, nearly unranked & under recognized

Arizona State is rested, and arrived in Pullman, Washington following,
“Most impressive victory in Todd Graham era” (ASU Web Devil)
Not only is ASU 3-1 in the PAC-12, w/a 1-Game Lead in the South.
ASU is 3-1 ATS in their last 4

ASU’s Last Game was a dominant win
It came vs. a Washington Team that reached #15 National Ranking
ASU beat up, beat down & thrashed a then #3 Conf Ranked Defense
ASU OL & RB Grice was a demoralizing sledgehammer on the ground
Devs chewed up UW Front-7 for 314 Rushing Yards (51 Carries)
Sun Devils Sr QB Kelly also passed for nearly 300 Yards
(Kelly: 26-42-270 w/1 TD & 2 INT)

More impressive was ASU’s Front-7 Defense
Devs Defense was 1st team to stuff then-#3 National Rusher, UW RB Bishop Sankey
Sankey was inexplicably limited to just 22 Rush Yards
Sankey lowest FBS output to that point was 125 Yards vs. Stanford
Sankey had been averaging 177 YPG vs. FBS Opponents

ASU is cranked up
Wazzu, on the other hand, is reeling

Cougs are openly disappointed stunned about prospects of just missing a shot at Bowl Eligibility
Despite their 10-7 upset at USC on 09/07/13, the Cougs schedule gives them little hope of landing 2 Wins

  • 10/31 AZST 
  • 11/16 at Ariz
  • 11/23 UTAH
  • 11/29 at Wash

Even after penciling in a Home Game vs. Utah as a Cougar Win
Wazzu has an uphill climb, & Leach is overtly soliciting ‘auditions’ for 2014 P.T.

Love Devils to steamroll Cougars

PREDICTION:
ARIZONA STATE 51
WASHINGTON STATE 20

____________

Fri Nov 1, 2013 | 9:05 PM, EDT | ESPN-2
Reser Stadium | Corvallis, Oregon

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS 5-3 (2-2 | 3-5 ATS)
OREGON STATE BEAVERS 6-2 (4-1 Conf | 4-3 ATS)

Two best Defensive Teams in the PAC-12 Conference….
Statistically speaking, at least (FBS Games Only)

1. USC 317 YPG Allowed
2. OSU 346 YPG Allowed

OSU did not escape Stanford w/o getting even MORE beat up

As we tweeted during Beavers game vs. Stanford,
OSU LB DJ Alexander was consistently providing Beavs a much-needed ‘2ND Disruptor’
This influential player was providing OSU Defense an enormous boost
Allowing OSU’s Scott Crichton helps bolster Beavers’ need for Defensive Pressure

DJ Alexander was slowly getting close to 100% after missing Beavs 1ST 2 Games w/injuries
Alexander’s combination of size (6-2 | 232) & closing speed was an instrumental piece of OSU’s D Resurgence
OSU had kept Stanford SCORELESS thru initial 29½ Minutes of the Game
Alexander closed in & ran down SU QB Kevin Hogan TWICE in the 1ST Half
Late 2ND Quarter a concussion & stinger limited & eventually sidelined D-J-A,
w/Beavers trying to hang on to a 3-0 Halftime lead,
Kevin Hogan was flushed & rumbled 34 Yards to the Beaver 4 Yard Line w/7 Seconds till Half
Then SU punched in the Go-Ahead Score, & wrestled momentum from Beavers
images-1images-1
OSU suffered more than a single injury here;
Alexander is uncanny at the perceptive, proficient art of ‘QB spy’ LB Role
DJA tracked down or tackled opposing QB’s NINE TIMES amongst his 32 Total 2013 Tackles

  • UU’s QB Trevor Wilson THREE TIMES
  • WZU’s QB Connor Halliday 2x
  • CU’s Conner Wood 2x
  • Cal’s Jared Goff 2x
  • SU’s Hogan Twice 2x

Alexander played for 2 more series before he was clearly too diminished to continue
OSU’s Scott Crichton was also exclusively doubled in the Second Half
Thus, w/OSU’s Right End Michael Doctor lost for Season, & no DJA,
OSU’s Defensive pressure was dramatically limited
SU STILL Managed to hold SU to JUST 13 FIRST DOWNS (OSU had 23)

OSU DEFENSE still played remarkably well, all things considered
SU QB Kevin Hogan was relegated to 8-18 | 88 Yards thru air

OSU O-Line struggled MIGHTILY, as TE Injuries are taking a serious toll
OSU allowed 9 Total Sacks thru their 1ST 7 Games…
SU came 1 Sack from DOUBLING the OSU Sacks Allowed Total

The Cardinal dropped OSU QB Sean Mannion 8 Times
Mannion was fortunate to have escaped this game; SU hit Mannion exceedingly hard numerous times

Mannion was rocked to such an extent that OSU Backup QB, Cody Vas was prompted to ready himself to enter the game at least twice

OSU Rush D? Not great vs. SU, yet resilient nonetheless
Stan is virtually tied w/2 other teams as 3rd Best Rush Team in PAC-12
Stanford pushed OSU around a bit up front – as they do vs. nearly every team they face

Now, when we talk about short-handed teams…
We’d be hard-pressed to find any team, anywhere, as decimated as the Trojans
Not just the Scholie limitations,
Yet injuries; to SC’s DEPTH more than just key players like WR Lee & DB Cravens,
Leave SC hard-pressed to withstand special teams & hard-driving team like OSU
ESPECIALLY in November … on OSU Dad’s Weekend Orange-Out Crowd at Reser

SO CAL ‘Key Player Injuries | JUST since 10/23:

  • DB Su’a Cravens PROB (Groin)
  • TE Shane Sullivan QWES (Leg)
  • TE Randall Telfer QWES
  • TE Xavier Grimble QWES
  • LB Dion Bailey QWES (Arm)
  • RB Taylor Ross QWES (Leg)
  • WR Marqise Lee QWES (Knee)
  • RB Justin Davis OUT FOR SEASON (Ankle)
  • SS Gerald Bowman OUT FOR SEASON (Shoulder)
  • LB Lamar Dawson OUT FOR SEASON (Knee)
  • OL Jordan Simmons OUT FOR SEASON (Knee)
  • RB D.J. Morgan OUT FOR SEASON (Knee)

USC travelled w/just 48 Players to South Bend on 10/19…& SC still nearly won
However, SC is now on a short week, after a myriad of injuries

OSU has shown such resiliency in these situations
We’re hearing that DJ Alexander is ‘just fine’
We are now also hearing OSU TE 6-07 Connor Hamlet is unexpectedly back

Oregon State faces an SC team that has turned ball over 1x in 3 games
OSU is savvy as any in creating T-Overs (NO GM in 2013 w/Neg Margin)

I like the Beavers in a MUST-WIN to keep PAC-12 Hopes alive
Call me crazy….THESE MIKE RILEY November Beavers …
Have ripped off so many improbable, gritty Nov Wins for me to expect nothing else

PREDICTION:
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 16
OREGON STATE 27

____________

Sat Nov 2, 2013 | 8:05 PM, EDT | ABC
Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium | Tallahassee, Florida

#7 MIAMI-FLORIDA HURRICANES 7-0 (3-0 Conf | 3-3 ATS)
#2 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES 7-0 (5-0 Conf | 4-2 ATS)

As much as I dislike continually playing Favorites
And, as much as I disdain playing a HUGE PLUS THREE TD Favorite
In a TOP-10 Matchup, in a Conference Game,
In a spot Noles are Just 4-17 in they’re last 21 as OVER 2 TD Conf Fav
One of those 4 came vs. CLEMSON this season
This is a DIFFERENT FSU Team
Miami-Hurricanees
th-2
POINTS conceivably ‘do not matter’ in the BCS Equation
Yet, we shouldn’t expect FSU to pay attention to that
When Noles have a chance to impress National Prime-Time ABC Audience?
Famous Jameis & The Florida State Seminoles should blast the barely unbeaten Canes’
FSU should keep pedal down ESPECIALLY vs. ‘The U’

Taking Noles’ EVEN at -22….

PREDICTION:
MIAMI-FLORIDA 13
FLORIDA STATE 48

____________

Sat Nov 2, 2013 | NOON, EDT | ESPN-3 & ESPN GAMEPLAN
Gillette Stadium | Foxborough, Massachusetts

#21 NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES 8-0 (4-0 Conf | 5-2 ATS)
MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN 1-7 (1-3 Conf | 4-3 ATS)

This is a pure value playUMass is slightly improved….yet, QB Lynch & Co breezed past UMass 63-0 Last year

NIU has received a good deal of criticism for a lackluster 27-20 Win Over Akron on 10/12
Yet, the remaining body of Husky work speaks for itself
In fact, NIU plays great on the road
UMass is a miserable -143 Yard Margin
The Minutemen WON a Conference Game; though it came vs. WINLESS Miami-O
UMass nearly beat W Michigan last week (30-31)
It remains fact that the directional schools of the MAC are dreadful this year
imgres-1imgres-2Northern Illinois should come close to matching last year’s beat down of UMass

To beat the dejected ‘Men of UMass
In a nearly sterile | neutral environment of Foxborough Stadium

PREDICTION:
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 52
MASSACHUSETTS 10

____________

Sat Nov 2, 2013 | 3:35 PM, EDT
Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, Texas

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS 3-5 (1-4 Conf | 2-5 ATS)
TCU HORNED FROGS 3-5 (1-4 Conf | 2-5 ATS)

Value play, here w/two 3-5 Teams w/Bowl Hopes on life support

WV game that always stands out is an inexplicable 37-0 Loss to MD
Since this time, WV took down Okie St,
WV was on the wrong end of an 842 Yard Baylor Boat race
Yet, WV played Texas Tech very tight
WV was far closer at K-State last week than the 35-12 Loss
In fact, Mounties had a 9-7 Halftime Lead, and stretched it to 12-7 last 3Q
The Cats’ took a 14-12 lead, then opened it up for 35-12 Win
Nevertheless, WV played OU to a tight single digit Week 2 loss in Norman
After allowing Bears 875 Yards,
WVU Defensive numbers are disproportionally, negatively skewed downward
Even w/that explosive spike in WVU’s Big XII Defensive numbers
WVU is right there bunched w/TCU’s Week 9 Opponent, Tx in YPG allowed (415)

Offensively, WVU’s Trickett FSU-Transfer, WVU QB Jr Trickett seems to have a better success w/Holgorsen’s offense, only throwing 1 INT in 3 Games

wvuimgres-3

TCU is sagging badly offensively, vs all opponents

QB situation w/Boyklin taking over for Pachill is still largely ineffective
TCU’s QB’s have tossed NINE Picks vs just 4 TD’s

West Virginia figures to have a better shot at a 6-6 Season than TCU

WVU has winnable games remaining vs Iowa State & Kansas
WVU still needs to strike at TCU or v TX next week in Morgantown to go Bowling
TCU goes out on the road to Ames & Manhattan, before drawing Baylor to close 2013

Moreover, WVU suffered a backbreaking 39-38 OT Home Loss vs TCU Last Season
Like Mounties to go ‘all-in’ here & keep this close

PREDICTION:
WEST VIRGINIA 21
TCU 23

____________

Sat Nov 2, 2013 | 3:35 PM, EDT | CBS
EverBank Field | Jacksonville, Florida (Neutral)

GEORGIA BULLDOGS 4-3 (3-2 Conf | 1-5-1 ATS)
FLORIDA GATORS 4-3 (3-2 Conf | 2-5 ATS)

Despite Georgia’s well-chronicled Injuries; (in various stages of status)
Tailbacks Todd Gurley, Josh Harvey-Clemons, & Keith Marshall
Defensive Backs Ryne Rankin, Tray Matthews
Receivers Jonathon Rumph, Clay Johnson, Michael Bennett, Chris Conley, Justin Scott-Wesley

images-2UF_logo_(1966-1967)

UF injuries beyond QB Driskell, are nearly as daunting:
DL’s Quinteze Williams & Dominique Easley
WR’s Chris Thompson & D.L. Powell
LB’s Jeremi Powell & Matt Jones

Leaner play…like Dawgs here, w/UGA RB Girly expected back vs
UF still struggles mightily to score
Florida’s yards per play in Gators’ last 4 Games
6.4 YPP
5.6 YPP
3.5 YPP
2.5 YPP

Nuf said in the Cocktail Party.

PREDICTION:
GEORGIA 27
FLORIDA 17

All for now, guys

2013 CFB | WEEK 7 October 11, 2013 No Comments

2013 PAC-12 FOOTBALL | WEEK 7

Thu Oct 10, 2013 | 10:35 PM, EDT | FOX Sports 1
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles, California

ARIZONA WILDCATS 3-1 (0-1 Conf | 1-2 ATS)
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS 3-2 (0-2 Conf | 1-4 ATS)

Most folks would postulate that we should expect the Post-Kiffen SC to come out ‘HOT’
Especially in a Primetime, National Spotlight Game
w/so many presumably tuning in to witness the So Cal Train wreck

Now these CATS could be just the team for SC to ‘extricate health’
Moreover, the Game Total is the area that looks valuable on this end

Almost 2 Years to the DAY, Arizona was in the exact same spot at these Trojans
Thu 10/11/11, UCLA at Arizona
Cats’ were in Game 1 following Mike Stoops receiving the midseason Ax
After a 0-5 Conference Start that resulted in the Coaching change
Arizona shelled UCLA, 48-12 in Tucson

Though the lean w/SC; as strikingly similar to those 2011 Cats’
Yet, see the Defense of each getting the upper hand

AZ Defense was 3RD from DEAD-LAST (FBS) last season
The Cats have made good strides – as we should have expected
AZ Pass Defense has a now-seasoned Secondary,

Even in a one-sided 31-13 loss at UW,
Cats Pass Defense held Keith Price to his lowest Pass Output of the Year (165 Yds)
AZ forced RB Sankey to beat them;
Sankey carried 40 TIMES vs Cats; gaining 160 Yards | Yet ‘just 4.0 YPC

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SC’s Defense, even after they surrendered to AZST, is STILL #1 in the PAC-12
Moreover, SC’s Front-7 & fierce Rush D is also #1 in PAC-12
SC’s #1 Rush Defense promises to give AZ RB Ka’deem Carey a difficult task

AZ’s Rush Game should gain less than they need to move sticks on many occasions

Square as it appears, I like the UNDER

PREDICTED SCORE:
ARIZONA 14
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 23

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Sat Oct 12, 2013 | 10:35 PM, EDT |ESPN-U
Martin Stadium | Pullman, Washington

OREGON STATE BEAVERS 4-1 (2-0 Conf | 2-2 ATS)
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS 4-2 (2-1 Conf | 4-1 ATS)

Particularly good matchup for Oregon State
Wazzu is as weak at running the ball as the Beavers (Each 60 YPG)

OSU’s Overall Defense has improved Week-to-Week
After an Injury-ridden Fall-Camp & over 600 Yds allowed to FCS-EWu

Beavers have healed their O-Line & climbed up (via 4x Wins) to #3 PAC-12 in D
Moreover, Wazzu’s ALL-SR Secondary Unit
Is not containing teams as well this season (Tied #9 in Conf)

Wzu, especially early in games
Shows tendencies to be spongy & has dropped off in limiting Big Plays

imgresimages-2

 

 

 

 

Beaver Coaching.

  • OSU HC Mike Riley (Dean of PAC-12 Coaches) in 13TH Year in Corvallis
  • OSU DC Mark Banker in 13TH Year in Corvallis
  • OSU OC Danny Langsdorf 10TH Year in Corvallis

Coaches do not wear pads, yet
OSU’s Staff…, which many, many folks are noticing (finally)
Are extraordinary effective in games off rest

This group was 5-0 ATS & S-U, 1ST Five Bowl Games (since 0-2)
Trio of OSU Coaches is also known to produce their venerable ‘November Beavers’

A sparkling 17-4 ATS (13-8 S-U) w/Rest
Including OSU’s 2008 Upset of Then #2, (-25) Rated SC, 27-21
2005 OSU upset of then-#5 Cal in Berkley, 23-20 &
Last Year’s upset of then-unbeaten UCLA in the Rose Bowl, 27-20

The list goes on.

Cougs really backslid from their great Start on Pass Defense
This was almost due to happen
Wazzu’s initial 2 opponents, Auburn & USC
BOTH place next to last in each Conference in Passing

OSU’s Sean Mannion is #1 in FBS w/404 YPG
As good as OSU is w/Rest, they have also been NAILS on the Road over 2 seasons
The Beavers were 3-2 last Year on Road
Two Losses Came AT RANKED UW by 3 (17-20) & AT #4 STAN by 4 (23-27)
Beavers Rolled BYU in Provo (42-24), Won at UCLA (27-20), and at AZ 38-35)

OSU added multiple new wrinkles to their Offense vs. CU two weeks ago
The Running Game opened up w/Speedster Chris Brown FINALLY seeing action

The 44-17 Beaver Win over Colorado may not be the greatest barometer, yet worth mentioning.
OSU looked more polished than both of their lackluster 2013 Road Wins
at Utah (51-48 OT) & at SDSU (34-30)

Wazzu played ONE established (Longer-Term Coach) Team
Stanford blasted WSU in a semi-neutral site
The Cougs feel rejuvenated – by many accounts confined vs. Beavers

Cougs also have a quick turnaround to head to Eugene in 6 days
See a backsliding Cougars running smack into these well-coached, mostly healed Beavers

PREDICTED SCORE:
OREGON STATE 44
WASHINGTON STATE 34

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Sat Oct 12, 2013 | 4:05 PM | Fox Sports 1
Husky Stadium | Seattle, Washington

#2 OREGON DUCKS 5-0 (2-0 Conf | 4-0 ATS)
#16 WASHINGTON HUSKIES 4-1 (1-1 Conf | 3-1 ATS)

UO OC Nick Allioti was seriously RED-ASSED at his Defense
WTH? AFTER a 41-Point Win

Oregon, again…toyed w/a fellow Conference Team
Oregon is concerned & annoyed – despite winning by 41 points
On the Road… in Conference Play

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Washington was essentially talking ‘Moral Victory last week
After LOSING on the Farm 31-28

To be clear, UW OUTPLAYED STANFORD statistically
UW Outgained SU by +220 Yards
UW Had 2x as many First Downs as SU

Yet, UW average scoring drive? 77 Yards
SU average scoring drive? 37 Yards

UW 2 Turnovers | SU 1 Turnover
SU One BIG 99-Yard Kickoff Return TD
Ballgame

Now, Oregon by TWO TD’s in Seattle?
No Way No How….This Number is just too low

1. UW’s Stanford Hangover for Dawgs
PLUS
2. OREGON Caravan Northward
PLUS
3. UW weaker than advertised Rush D (#9 PAC-12)
PLUS
4. ORE DC Allioti pistol-whip of his D
(ORE #2 Pass D & ORE #3 Rush D in PAC-12)

Will be far too much to keep Oregon from hanging 50 on UW

PREDICTED SCORE:
OREGON 52
WASHINGTON 21

_____________

Sat Oct 12, 2013 | 8:05 PM, EDT | CBSSN
Romney Stadium | Logan, Utah

BOISE STATE BRONCOS 3-2 (1-1 Conf | 2-2 ATS)
UTAH STATE AGGIES 3-3 (2-0 Conf | 3-2 ATS)

Simple Premise (again)

By Tony Jones | The Salt Lake Tribune

“Utah State lost more than its star quarterback against BYU when Chuckie Keeton went down with what appears to be a significant knee injury.
Aggies lost most of the swagger and confidence they’ve carried around for almost three seasons.
Suddenly, the energy left Romney Stadium like air being let out of a balloon.
Suddenly, a normally stout defense had no life.
Suddenly, fans headed for the exits with more than five minutes remaining in the third quarter.”

(‘Tony G’ & I have an open-ended/endless argument about LeBron James,
LBJ’s supposed ‘Tough upbringing in Akron, OH, ect)

Yet, my man, TG is right. USU is deflated & dispirited this week.
All the build up to USU watershed MW Primetime Showcase has essentially vanished
It’s praiseworthy that USU nearly emerged from an unthinkable Death March Schedule w/o any key injuries

imgres-2images-4

 

 

 

 

The Aggies now face a once-again potent Boise State Team,
Broncos’ in the unfamiliar role looking to knock off a 1ST Place Team (USU)

Boise State is rested (2 Weeks for 60-7 Beatdown of So Miss)
Since sputtering & grinding out in Seattle w/6 Points on Aug 31

  • BSU has rolled up 51 PPG in their next 4
  • BSU flew over all their last 4 Game Totals;
  • BSU cleared ½ of those Totals w/o any help from their opponents

Utah State & Boise State are 1 & 2 in MW Total Defense
I just see this demoralized Utah State Aggie Team

ESPECIALLY on the Game 7 of this demanding, tiresome stretch

  • at Utah (Arch-Rival, Devastating 4-Point Loss)
  • at Air Force (First-Ever MW Game)
  • at USC (cruel 3 Point Loss)
  • at San Jose State (Nice Win)
  • BYU (Finally back Home for Arch-Rival, only to lose marquee Franchise Player & Game)

All adds up to an unrelenting rollercoaster 7 Games in 7 Week Stretch
Utah State; by all reports, has a significant emotional, psychosomatic hangover

From this stretch of Games as much as the Keaton Injury
Boise State is just not the cure.

PREDICTED SCORE:
BOISE STATE 30
UTAH STATE 13

_____________

Sat Oct 12, 2013 | 7:05 PM | ESPN-U
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, Utah

GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS 3-2 (2-2 Conf | 2-2 ATS)
BRIGHAM YOUNG COUGARS 3-2 (3-2 ATS)

GT is reeling a little off BTB difficult Conf Losses (Both ATS Losses)
BYU arrives back home on 8 days rest off another great Road Win at USU

images-5  images-6

 

 

 

 

Really like battle-tested Cougs in this altitude spot

PREDICTED SCORE:
GEORGIA TECH 17
BRIGHAM YOUNG 34

____________________

Sat Oct 12, 2013 | 7:35 PM, EDT | ESPN-3
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, Mississippi

BOWLING GREEN FALCONS 5-1 (3-0 Conf | 0-0 ATS)
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS 2-3 (0-2 Conf | 2-2 ATS)

MAC BEST DEFENSE Facing the SEC’s #6 Offense

The MSU Bulldog’s QB situation has been uncertain

From the moment MSU 6-04 | 221 QB Sr Tyler Russell suffered a Concussion in Miss St Opener vs. Okie St

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Russell finally saw action in the Bulldogs last game (59-26 Loss to Miss St)

Even though he only saw mop-up duty,
Russell’s numbers were encouraging (7-11 | 147 Yards | 2 TD | 1 INT)

MSU 6-03 | 232 QB Soph Dak Prescott has reportedly been steady
Yet, Prescott’s #12 Rating amongst SEC QB’s in 4 Starts (1 TD | 2 INT)
Leaves MSU’s HC Mullen decision more of a ‘why not?’

The controversy doesn’t seem to lay w/which QB will start…
Yet, Mullens is clearly ‘campaigning’ for a 2-QB scheme
As he laid claim by implementing in Gainesville w/Leak & of course, Tebow

Each QB brings MSU benefits
Prescott has good outright Option-1 Rushing skill & forces teams to spy

Russell was 5TH in the SEC in Passing YPG Last Season (231)

Mississippi State was badly beaten by the Top 15 Teams they faced
MSU was also dinged at a reloading Auburn Team

Fundamentally speaking,
3 good teams (LSU/Aub/Okie St) had their way vs. Bulldogs Defense

Especially thru the AIR, LSU & Auburn BOTH Passed for 340 Yards vs. MSU
Miss St allowing Ground-Oriented Auburn this sort of day?

Unheard of;
Auburn would be DEAD LAST in SEC if not for MSU (Auburn is #13 of 14)
Auburn averages 145 Passing Yards per Game in their remaining 4 Games

3 of these MSU’s 4 secondary players have been in Starkville for 4+ Years
Mississippi State’s all-upperclass Defensive Backfield Unit:

  • MSU 5-10 | 174 Jr Love
  • MSU 6-03 | 197 Jr Cox (JC-Transfer)
  • MSU 5-11 | 195 Jr Hughes along w/lone 2012 Starter
  • MSU 6-01 | 204 Sr Whitley

Lack of big game-play experience has been glaring

Bowling Green is really slinging it

Unexpected emergence of BG’s QB Soph Matt Johnson
Has Catapulted the Falcs to 5-1 Record, and 2nd Best Passing in MAC

Nevertheless, the MAC’s ‘Best Defense’ has not been thoroughly tested
Indiana blasted BG for 601 Total Yards (nearly 300 Each Passing & Rushing)

The Falcons began this season w/abundant experience
As any FBS Team (19 of 22 Starters back from 8-5 Squad)

Falcs have suffered untimely injuries to their Top 25 Defense
Two Preseason All-Conference Defensive Captains are out or hampered
BG Jr DB Darrell Hunter has been out all season
BG Sr NT Ted Ouellette is Qwes. For MSU Trip

Bowling Green had gained +136 More Yards than their opponent
The combined records of the Falcons 4 FBS Wins is 4-18

Thus, we leaned w/BG in this Road Game
Till looking at BG & the best damn mediocre body of work we could find
Falcons number was prime when teased

Mississippi State is a Power SEC Team
In the TOP HALF or 1/3 of SEC (* % of O-Line Starts/Tackles/Starters Back)

* I KNOW we’re in WEEK 7; yet MSU has still played just 2 SEC Games

Homecoming in Starkville

MSU Off Tough Loss to LSU, MSU & BEFORE a Bye Week
MSU should & could run up a boatload of Yards & Points vs. BG

Conversely, Bowling Green should compile a surprisingly
Really like the Total to FLY OVER a Teased Total here

PREDICTED SCORE:
BOWLING GREEN 28
MISSISSIPPI STATE 37

All for now, guys…ALL THE BEST.

Pregame Sonny Seattle Show | CFB Week 6 No Comments

Week 6 College Football Preview

Sonny Seattle Show on Pregame.com

Stevebeav 2013 CFB Week 5 September 27, 2013 No Comments

2013 WEEK 5 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL

ALL THE BEST, GUYS

PAC-12 | Week 3: UW’s Midwest Test September 14, 2013 No Comments

PAC-12 GAMES OF THE WEEK

#19 Washington Huskies vs Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes

Week 3 Looks sensational | 7 writeups | Time to get into it

____________

Sat Sep 14, 2013 | 6:05 PM, EDT | BTN
Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois | Semi-Neutral*

#19 WASHINGTON HUSKIES (1-0 | 1-0 ATS)
ILLINOIS ILLINI (2-0 | 1-0 ATS)

“Tight-Ten-Point, D.D.H.D.” (Double-Digit Home Dog)
Illini not really at Home (Soldier Field), yet crowd will be Orange

Washington has clearly professed themselves as “arrived” in 2013
Proving their improvement from the ‘Seven-Win-Steve’ days
Categorical, supreme beatdown of perennial NW Power, Boise State

images
Now w/2 weeks to prepare for Illinois,
U-Dub is displaying swagger of an upstart, brash Top-25 Team
Just the spot Sark’s Dawgs have been consistently dethroned

  • 2012 UW Upset #7 Stan | UW then Lost 3x
  • 2011 UW Biggest Win vs 5-1 Ariz | UW then lost 3x
  • 2010 UW Won at USC, 32-31 | UW then hammered at Hm by AzSt, 34-14 (started 1-4 run)
  • 2009 UW Beat #22 USC 16-13 | UW was dominated at Hm 34-14 by Az, losing 6 of 7)

Even so, Wash lone 2013 Win over Boise St was just as lopsided as the 38-6
According to Phil Steele, UW produced the 2ND most dominating Week 1 Performance
(Only LSU beating TCU was statistically more impressive)

BOISE STATE 6
WASHINGTON 38

UW Offense was balanced (268 RY | 324 PY) 592 TOTAL YARDS
UW Defense was superb (171 RY | 175 PY Allowed) 346 TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED

Washington finished game +246 Total Yards
UW was good in Week 1

2-0 Illinois under 1ST Year HC Tim Beckman
Has already matched their win total from 2012

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UI’s 45-17 Win over Double-Digit Favorite Cincy
Is largely referred to as an *asterisk win by a lot of ‘experts’
This is probably an underestimation of Illinois near-complete effort

Moreover, folks that point to CIN QB Minche Legaux ghastly leg injury
As THE ‘turning point’ in Illinois’ upset win
Are disregarding UI held a decent 31-17 Second Half lead at time of the injury

Additionally, Illinois racked up 522 Yards vs UC
UI stepped on the Bearcats neck from the opening kick
Cincy’s 422 TY; should be carry a little less weight largely low%, hurry up prevent gains

Cincinnati was a 10-Win Team in 2012
Illinois ran very well vs Cincy Team that was in Top 20% Rush Defense 2012
UI Rushed for 210 Yards on 5.4 YPR
Lastly, Illini Sr QB Scheelhaase is particularly rejuvenated in Beckman’s Offense

In ONE 2013 FBS START (4 TD | 0 INT | 312 Yards Passing | 179 Rating)

Scheelhaase ALREADY matched his Passing TD’s from 10 Starts last season (4)
Scheelhaase ALREADY surpassed his highest 2012 Game Rating of 148

Arguably, the best remedy for Scheelhaase is forgoing ‘tuck-n-run’
(4 Rush last week | 14 Carries, Career)

Scheelhaase…not for nothin…
Swear dude has been under Center in Champaign for about 17.8 Years

Washington is still Washington; talented yet still inexperienced overall
Maybe this year is different; historically the ‘truth’ is somewhere in the middle

For all the GOOD UW has going – especially on Offense….

PAC-12 Rankings: #1 O-Starters Back (10)

UW is LAST in the PAC-12 w/fewest Upperclass Starters on Defense
UW has the Second Least Upperclassmen in Two-Deep, ect

Stellar RB play (Sankey #2 Returning RB in PAC-12)
Erratic, yet at times sparkling QB Play w/Price

When Huskies are GOOD, they have been VERY GOOD,
When bad, they have been honestly very freaking bad

UW has lost eight games by 30+ Points in the last 3 Seasons
UW is habitual offenders in the Penalty Dept.; ESPECIALLY on Road
(UW #10 PAC-12 Penalties last yr; only UCLA & Cal were below UW;
UCLA was WORST in all FBS & Cal was 2ND WORST in all FBS)

Moreover, UW does not get to QB often
This is essential vs Beckman’s Qwik-Read Offensive Pistol Scheme

Washington was supremely motivated v’s Boise State:

  1. REVENGE for Vegas Bowl Loss in Last Game UW Played
  2. OPENING NEW HUSKY STADIUM

We are bucking a large UW trend, as Marc Lawrence says,
‘Rested teams off a big Win tend to do well’

Still believe UW’s record of flops in such spots
PLUS
An undervalued Illinois is a ‘bankable’ recipe here

Going w/Illinois as the ‘Tight-10’ Underdog here
After UW has had 2 Weeks to bask in #25 ranking

PREDICTION
WASHINGTON 33
ILLINOIS 31

SEMI-NEUTRAL*

___________

Sat Sep 14, 2013 | 10:05 PM, EDT | Fox-1
Rice-Eccles Stadium | Salt Lake City, Utah

OREGON STATE BEAVERS (1-1 | 0-1 ATS)
UTAH UTES (2-0 | 1-0 ATS) 

Beavers notched FIRST Win of 2013 Saturday, 33-14 vs lowly Hawaii
Good news for Week 2 & OSU:

Beaver Defense returned to a more recognizable form
Nevertheless, overwhelmingly troubling news for OSU came to the surfaced on Sunday
Oregon State received word Sr (NFL-Bound) MLB Michael Doctor is out 6-8 weeks

images-1

Add to this,
OL’s Grant Enger, & two more existing injuries
(Including OSU ‘Will-LB’, DJ Alexander, still likely out)

Thus, OSU is left w/4 remaining OSU Returning Starters

 

From Beavers ‘Opening Day’ projected Defensive Depth Chart
OSU DE Crichton
OSU DE Wynn
OSU CB Reynolds
OSU FS Murphy

Just 4 of Original 7 Returning Starters slated to suiting up for PAC-12 Opener?
Doesn’t bode well for Beavers travel to the healthy, HOT, revenge-minded Utah Utes Squad

The OL?
Much MORE of a Patchwork mess
Let’s just say OSU went from being the #1 PAC-12 Team w/90 Returning OL Starts
To just 3 of 5 O-Linemen healthy & being forced to start 3 OL out of position in SLC
OSU Ran for 57 Yards on 33 Carries….vs Hawaii (1.73 YPC)

OSU DOES PROFESS TO RUN THE FOOTBALL in the Pro-Set
Nevertheless, The Beavers are NINTH WORST Rushing team in FBS

The Utes were banged up when they visited Corvallis on a raw, October Night last year
OSU pounded & knocked UU around
Three more Ute Players were sidelined in the Beavers 21-7 Win

images-2

UU QB Travis Wilson has been hot & settling into Wittingham’s Offense
UU is 2-0, after taking out rival Utah State & breezing by FCS Weber State
UU Defense returns Top-4 Tacklers from a #5 PAC-12 Defense of 2012

Even with Holy War looming for Utes next week
UU should handle Oregon State reasonably easy

PREDICTION
OREGON STATE 21
UTAH 37

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Sat Sep 14, 2013 | 12:35 PM, EDT | ACC-TV
Heinz Field | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

NEW MEXICO LOBOS (1-1 | 1-1 ATS)
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (0-1 | 0-1 Conf | 0-1 ATS)

Bob Davie has his Lobos grinding up rushing yards in 2013
New Mexico is vastly improved

images-3

Especially after blowing a 13-0, lead at Home vs UTSA & losing 21-13
Lobos look undervalued here

UNM has played BTB close games at their high altitude (WON at UTEP in Week 1)
As stated, rested teams off a bad loss tend to perform poorly

Pitt was rudely ushered into ACC by Conference Heavyweight FSU

images-4

I like NMU to keep this close

PREDICTION
NEW MEXICO 19
PITTSBURGH 34

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Sat Sep 14, 2013 | 3:05 PM, EDT
Kibbie Dome | Moscow, Idaho

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (1-0 | 1-0 ATS)
IDAHO VANDALS (0-2 | 0-2 ATS)

Number boomeranged instantly from Huskies -24 to -28 rapidly
It is STILL valuable at 4 TD’s

Idaho is an unadulterated mess

imgres-2

A game played in the UI’s smallest FBS Venue,
(Calling Kibbie Dome glorified HS Basketball gymnasium a Stadium it a stretch)

By all accounts, The NIU Huskies still have that ’edge’

Quoting Martin Rickman (SI ‘Inside College Football’), regarding 2013 NIU:

“Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch was the best player in the MAC conference in 2012
Lynch returned after finishing seventh in Heisman voting a year ago

NIU brings back a variety of offensive weapons….”

imgres-1

NIU overturned ‘New HC in First Stiff Road Test’ negative trends: with their Week 1 straight-up win at Iowa, 30-27

  1. NIU won as a small FG Dog 
  2. NIU won in AT difficult Big Ten venue 
  3. NIU won at Iowa despite falling behind 27-20 with 6:42 to play

Moreover, NIU showed genuine BRASS in their Win at Iowa

After losing a 10-0 early lead, NIU fell behind 27-20 w/6:42 to play

  • The Huskies executed a 75-Yard TD drive to TIE the Game 
    • Then, NIU picked off Iowa QB Rudock w/1:13 to play
      • NIU then hit go-ahead 36-Yard Game clinching FG w/0:11 to play

Thus, we LIKE to exploit Marc Lawrence’s Bye Week profit trend
‘Rested teams off a big Win tend to do well’ clearly comes into play with NIU Huskies
(Same one we must work against w/UW Huskies)

NIU is rested;
Northern Illinois is potent enough to roll up 60 in Moscow
Yet may just get to 45 or 50, yet should top this spread at or before the Half

PREDICTION
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 54
IDAHO 7

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Sat Sep 14, 2013 | 6:05 PM, EDT
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pennsylvania

CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS (2-0 | 2-0 ATS)
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (2-0 | 1-1 ATS)

Obviously, we must consider the competition, UCF is darn good
O’Leary’s Knights have produced superb ‘Top 3rd’ FBS Defense for 4 consecutive years

Yet, especially on Offense, Central Florida is rock solid on both sides
Central Florida has consistently positive Turnover Ratio
Knights also play well vs solid teams (& vise-versa)

images-5

UCF picked up where they left off last year
Mopping up weak FIU & Akron by combined 38-4 score

Central Florida lost 4 Games last year by 28 Total Points in 2012
UCF biggest 2012 Loss came AT undefeated Ohio State, 31-16

UCF backfield passes the eyeball test

UCF RB 6-00 | 217 Jr Storm Johnson (Miami-Florida transfer)
Has already rushed for ‘only’ about 100 YPG
Johnson hasn’t been needed for more than ½ Knights first 2 games

Johnson is pounding out 5 YPC this year

UCF QB 6-04 | 232 Jr Blake Bortles has been vastly improved w/great protection

Bortles has passed at a 70% Completion Rate w/5 TD & 0 INT,
Bortles has been effective enough to keep Mizzou Transfer QB Jr Ty Gabbert in #2 Hole

Size & speed is a factor any team must have to face a Big Ten Team
UCF seemingly has this in spades; and are primed to earn a Win in Happy Valley

With Penn State’s dazzling 11 of last 13 covers (6-1 ATS at Home, last 7)
It is clear that teams do not often outwork PSU

imgres-3

However, PSU 6-04 | 220 Freshman QB Hackenberg & UCF’s Bortles?
Hackenberg is hitting on 70% like Bortles
Yet Hackenberg has committed Freshman propensity to force passes
(Hackenberg: 3 INT | 3 TD in 2013), as UCF Bortles did in his Soph Season;

 

UCF QB Bortles threw 7 Picks in 2012; ALL INT’s were prior to NOV 2012
UCF QB 6-04 | 232 Jr Blake Bortles has not thrown a Pick in 8 consecutive starts
(Also, 12 of 13 Games w/o 0 Picks)

Like Knights to WIN this game

PREDICTION
CENTRAL FLORIDA 26
PENN STATE 23

____________

PREDICTION
FRESNO STATE 37
COLORADO 28

_____________

PREDICTION
TENNESSEE 23
OREGON 48

______________

PREDICTION
LOUISVILLE 38
KENTUCKY 23

______________

PREDICTION
STANFORD 41
ARMY 10

_______________

All the best, Guys
stevesportsstats.com | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS
Owner/Founder, Way Out West Sports Productions, LLC
OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (CLASS of 1993) | 'Always a Great Day to be a Beaver'
BEAVER NATION 'POWERED BY ORANGE

PAC-12 Game-of-the-Week: #2 Oregon at Virginia September 5, 2013 No Comments

PAC-12 PLAY OF THE WEEK

Sat Sep 7, 2013 | 3:35 PM | ESPN-2 or ABC Regional
Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, Virginia

#2 OREGON DUCKS (1-0)
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (1-0)

Ducks travel cross-country to face upstart Wahoos in ACC Country

Oregon moves up to #2 in the Country, ahead of Ohio State
Ducks are anything but overconfident
After their rival one-county to the North, Oregon State’s blunder last week,
Every PAC-12 team facing a Non-Conference opponent is favored AND on heightened upset alert

ESPECIALLY Ducks

After their 19-16 win over visiting BYU on Saturday,
UVa is reportedly self-assured in their ability to stay w/Ducks

Virginia should not be too confident here
An exceedingly favorable set of events allowed Cavs to beat Cougars
BYU truthfully outplayed UVa in a Central Eastern Seaboard Late-Summer Torrential rainstorm
BYU had +140 Total Yards and +7 First Downs on Saturday

Oregon was Oregon on Saturday
Hardly breaking stride vs. Nicholls State, 66-3

Oregon will have every opportunity to get out and gallop vs. Wahoos

Saturday Forecast for Charlottesville: 82F & Sunny | Low 63 F | Humidity below average”
(Forecast for Eugene? 81 F | Low 62F)

Fast surface, for a mid-afternoon, National TV Kickoff
Ideal setting for ORE Marcus Mariota &/or De’Anthony Thomas to catapult themselves into Heisman Race

Virginia’s Offense?
Could have serious issues moving the ball vs. Nick Allioti’s Oregon containment Defense
UVa is consistently in the lowest 20% nationally – last year and thus far in 2013 (223 TY vs. BYU)

Like Ducks big, here.

Simple Math:
OREGON’S DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD RANKING (Phil Steele): #1
Steele: ‘Ducks Secondary was Injury-plagued last season, yet still finished Ranked #7 as a Unit’

Assessing UVa 19-16 win BYU last week reveals a great deal about Cavs Offense
UVa scored on 13 & 16 Yard TD Drives
UVa it a desperation 53 Yard FG & tackled BYU greased pig play for Safety
UVa was somewhat outplayed, and BYU Outgained Cavs by +140 Yards

Virginia has little in the way of consistent Passing Attack (13-40 | 175 Yards | 1 INT)
Oregon in a 45-10 type breeze

PREDICTION:

OREGON 49
VIRGINIA 10

_________________

Sat Sep 7, 2013 | NOON, EDT | ESPN
Sun Life Stadium | Miami Gardens, Florida

#11 FLORIDA GATORS (1-0)
MIAMI-FLORIDA HURRICANES (1-0)

Both teams come into showdown off underwhelming, straight up, ‘non-cover’ routine wins over non-AQ flunkies

Florida is back to near full potency
Critical to UF’s 2013 Offensive success is RB Soph Matt Jones
Jones expected to take the place of workhorse Gillislie
Who has put on 22+ lbs. in the offseason, yet has 52 Career carries
Making his initial Gator Start in Sun Life Stadium vs. Canes….
Jones has experienced OL to lead his charge,
Yet 72 of Gators 92 returning starts ALSO will make first 2013 start this week
As will LB Soph Antonio Morrison

Despite Florida’s adequate experience at QB
UF’s dual run/pass threat, Jr Jeff Driskel
Driskel was a disappointing #12 amongst 14 starting SEC QB’s last season

Also, despite Florida OL experience,
UF lives precariously thru their bombastic DEFENSE,
UF posted a dominant 11-2 Record despite landing at #12 among 14 SEC Teams in Total Offense
(Gators ended up #105 Nat’l our of 124 Teams)

Make no mistake; UF Defense is ferocious, breakneck-fast in each Unit
Especially Gators DL (#6 National/Unit) & Secondary (#2 National/Unit)

Nevertheless, the irresistible Gator force meets a potent Miami Offense
For all UF Defensive talent, Gators STILL enter as w/5 NEW on Front-7 Starters
UF 7 ‘New’ 2013 Starters in all, in their first REAL Test in Miami

Moreover, Canes’ have a POWER Running Game & a balanced, complete offensive attack
MIA-FL RB Soph Duke Johnson has 100% Intact Starting OL to tote the rock

Even though it came vs. a substandard, bumbling Florida International team,
Miami looked especially polished in Week 1 on both sides of scrimmage
Miami’s Johnson’s 186 Rushing Yards was #1 Rushing output in FBS last week

Hurricanes balance should break down & counter-punch a youthful, over-pursuing UF Defense
Florida’s continually sluggish offense is probably a great remedy for Canes mediocre Defense

Too many new starters (13 of 22), with many of those key players making initial 2013 start for Florida
Especially vs such an experienced, primed Offense of Miami 10 of 11 Offensive Starters back)
Miami brings TWICE as many returning starters into 2013 (UM’s 18 vs. UF’s 9)
Not a ‘trend-guy’, yet Al Golden is attached to a number that’s almost impossible to ignore
Miami HC Golden is a remarkable career 19-3 ATS in Home Dog spots

Taking Canes with the FG

PREDICTION:

FLORIDA 20
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27

____________

Sat Sep 7, 2013 | 7:05 PM, EDT | ESPN-2
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, Utah

#15 TEXAS LONGHORNS (1-0)
BRIGHAM YOUNG COUGARS (0-1)

Again, simple premise, here.

BYU on ropes after devastating cross-country trip & loss in a Central Virginia Monsoon last week
Texas had an easy tune-up, and looked every bit the Big XII contender
UT had 359 Rush Yards & 356 Passing Yards vs. hapless NMSU

This is a small revenge spot for Cougs from 2 Years ago
Many BYU Missionary ‘Elders players have memories of that Texas trip
2011 BYU at Texas was very much like Cougars experience last week in Charlottesville
BYU outplayed Horns as a 2011 visitor to Austin,
Cougs had late 16-3 lead until allowing two late TD’s and losing to Texas, 17-16 on opening day

Nevertheless, Texas is simply overpowering as ONLY TD Favorite here

PREDICTION:

TEXAS 35
BRIGHAM YOUNG 21

____________

ADDTIONAL PREDICTIONS 

NOTRE DAME 24
MICHIGAN 23

HAWAII 23
OREGON STATE 40

 

All the best, guys

 

 

STAT OF THE WEEK

OREGON QB Marcus Marriota 2013 Stat

  • 20 TD PASSES | 0 INT in 2013
  • Mariota 10 GAMES PLAYED w/o an INT
  • Mariota 294 Pass Attempts w/o an INT
  • Last Mariota Interception?

    Came on Final Play of 1st Half in 17-14 OT Loss to Stanford Last Season

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